German security policy is based on the 2016 White Paper, which emphasizes the need for precise, scalable military operations as well as the protection of our own personnel and the minimization of collateral damage.
Two quotes from the White Paper formulate our mission:
Impact is critical to mission accomplishment. [...] in the use of military force, precision and scalability are essential prerequisites for achieving the intended effect and averting harm to innocent bystanders.
The survivability and protection of our personnel and capabilities [...] are essential for the performance of our tasks. At the same time, they are an expression of responsibility for the people entrusted to the Bundeswehr.
We evaluate the technical and operational impact of weapons deployments against intended targets and to minimize unwanted collateral damage to our own forces and bystanders.
This evaluation is based on modelling and simulation using the Universal Vulnerability Model (UniVeMo), which we develop and operate as a national standard for the Bundeswehr. This simulation determines expected damage to individual target components due to interaction with weapon effects and the resulting functional consequences in the form of accumulated failure probabilities of system capabilities, e.g. driving, sparking, firing.
UniVeMo thus serves to analyze the vulnerability and survivability of own systems against foreign weapons as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of own weapons against foreign targets.
Any type of target can be analyzed in UniVeMo. This includes manned and unmanned vehicles on land, air and water, including their means of action.
A target description for UniVeMo consists of a geometric description and other properties or parameters that are required for the analysis. The 3D geometry must represent all functional components of the target such as the engine, control units and operating elements as well as non-functional components such as passive armor. All components are assigned the material and a fill factor, which statistically takes into account non-modeled details. Component failure functions describe the probability of component function failure in the event of damage resulting from interaction with weapon effects. A fault tree is stored for the failure of system capabilities, which contains the relevant components and describes their logical interaction, whereby particular attention must be paid to redundancies.
Target modeling is by far the most complex part of the impact analysis, as it requires an in-depth understanding of the target system and expert knowledge of the possibilities and limitations of the effects.
The ammunition description can be limited to the effects to be applied. For a single fragment of a warhead, mass, material, shape type and velocity are sufficient. To represent direct hits of a ballistic missile by an interceptor missile including debris formation, both objects must be modeled in the quality of a target description. The parameters for a stand-off, impact or delay fuse are also taken into account.
UniVeMo can map the following effects:
A scenario can contain several targets and several munitions that interact with each other. In scenario fault trees, the system failures of the targets involved can be logically linked to each other, for example to determine the probability with which a target can be successfully engaged without seriously injuring uninvolved persons in the vicinity. When the simulation starts, these objects are moved, the fuse models are used to initiate and propagate the effects and the effects of all munitions on all targets and collateral objects are calculated.
The result of a UniVeMo simulation is always the conditional probability of failure assuming a hit or probability of kill given hit, Pk/h for short. In a single simulation run, it is determined for each target contained in the scenario and each system failure of the target defined by the fault tree. The assumption of a hit means that the ammunition comes so close to the target that an interaction can take place. With the probability of hit, Ph, the overall probability Pk = Ph*Pk/h of a successful engagement can be determined for each hit. Conversely, the optimum target point can be determined by varying the hit points, even for indirect fire.
Determining the hit probability requires models of the ammunition trajectories from the weapon to the target, which can take into account all influencing variables and their uncertainties in order to determine the distribution density (scattering) at the target. We also use closed-form approximation solutions for this purpose, which can reveal the relationships between the input variables and the placement at the target much more clearly than statistical evaluations of numerical Monte Carlo simulations.
UniVeMo can be fully controlled with Lua scripts, which allows extensive automation. In addition, there is the UniVeMo-Lab for graphical-interactive operation and UniVeMo-Studio, which enables users without programming knowledge to use UniVeMo with predefined sequences and tested selection options for ammunition and targets. Studio results are stored in predefined Excel or Word documents, and many studies can also be used to create illustrative animations if required.
With the development of UniVeMo-Light (UVML), a very easy to integrate and extremely high-performance solution is now available for mapping the effect in the target in higher aggregated simulations.
Based on ammunition, target and the dynamic encounter situation to be specified, UVML calculates the failure probability of the target using a combination of fast calculations of the hit probability and impact conditions as well as the look-up of presented and vulnerable areas of the target in tables that were generated once with UniVeMo from its detailed target models. The expected damage from the pressure effect of a detonation and the resulting probability of failure can also be taken into account. Target object instances can be managed by the application, allowing the cumulative effect across multiple attacks to be simulated.
The simplifications in UVML allow several thousand calculations per second. Compared to UniVeMo, UVML nevertheless achieves an astonishingly high level of consistency. This combination of high quality of differentiated analysis and speed of execution has made UVML the preferred impact data provider for many simulation models - at IABG, industry and authorities, at home and abroad.
The integration with models of personal vulnerability, taking into account different protective equipment, has made it possible to independently determine national hazard values for the operational use of weapons in accordance with NATO specifications (CER/RED) in practicable periods of time and with available resources. UVML will play a central role in future cross-army solutions for weapons deployment planning (Weaponeering).
Our capabilities consist of methodical knowledge to simulate the effects, but also an in-depth understanding of the structure and functionality of the targets and munitions that we map. Accordingly, highly trained and experienced personnel are a key factor in successful projects. IABG funding for research and development, extensive Bundeswehr R&T studies, international research cooperations and constantly challenging tasks ensure the continuous development of our methods and our personnel.
Carrying out and evaluating these extensive and complex simulations of the effect on the target with UniVeMo or UVML enables our customers to identify weak points, to evaluate different solution approaches in a comparable and manufacturer-independent manner, to provide higher aggregated simulations with realistic effect data without loss of speed and to obtain the necessary data for operational use.
Optimize your systems, identify weak points and make informed decisions for successful deployment. Get in touch with us today!
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